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October Market Update

October Market Update

Our team is committed to continuing to serve all your real estate needs while incorporating safety protocol to protect all of our loved ones.

In addition, as your local real estate experts, we feel it’s our duty to give you, our valued client, all the information you need to better understand our local real estate market. Whether you’re buying or selling, we want to make sure you have the best, most pertinent information, so we’ve put together this monthly analysis breaking down specifics about the market.

As we all navigate this together, please don’t hesitate to reach out to us with any questions or concerns. We’re here to support you.

Jayson Madani, DRE #01431948

Welcome to our October newsletter. This month, we discuss the state of the economy, COVID-19, and potential economic stimulus. We will also look at forecasts for the housing market now that we are entering autumn. Overall, the housing market has shown significant price growth over the second quarter, showcasing the strength and stability of residential real estate. Year-over-year sales have also increased considerably through the summer months. As we enter autumn, we believe the housing market is positioned for continued growth in both sales and price appreciation. As the market changes, we will continue to provide the most up-to-date housing information to support your buying and selling decisions. 

In this month’s newsletter, we cover the following:

  • Key Topics and Trends in October: More than half of those jobs lost in March and April have now been recovered, but hiring has slowed, and some large companies are announcing layoffs. In California, COVID-19 cases have been declining since mid-August, although the decline over the last month has been less pronounced. Plans for additional economic stimulus for individuals and small businesses remain uncertain.
  • October Housing Market Updates: High buyer demand, coupled with low inventory, have caused home prices to climb higher. 

Key Topics and Trends in October

The Labor Department reported that employers added 661,000 new jobs in September, which is fewer than half the jobs added in August and about a third of those added in July. This trend indicates a slowdown in hiring. If the hiring rate remains at current levels, it will take 16 months to recover the jobs lost in March and April; however, it will take even longer if the hiring rate continues to slow. 

As of September 26, 12.5 million workers remained unemployed—an unemployment rate of 7.9%. More than 800,000 newly unemployed workers are filing initial unemployment claims each week, and 11.8 million are continuing to collect unemployment (see figure below).

Despite high rates of unemployment and an economic downturn, housing has held onto its value, particularly in the San Francisco Bay Area. Pandemic-induced economic impacts disproportionately affect workers without college degrees—individuals who were likely not in the housing market in the first place. And, as the Bay Area employs a high number of skilled workers with college degrees, its unemployment rate is lower than other areas of the United States, and its housing market is holding strong. Now, more than ever, the more highly skilled and educated a person is, the more likely they will be able to afford a home.

As we enter autumn, we are uncertain whether or not federal stimulus aid for individuals and businesses affected by COVID will come before or after the election. The immediate risks to the housing market, however, are fairly low. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Research Institute for Housing America (RIHA) reports that, for the most part, homeowners were able to continue their mortgage payments; however, renters struggled to pay rent. This should come as no surprise; only 6% of homeowners reported collecting unemployment by the end of June, while the percentage of renters collecting unemployment was more than double that.

Despite our struggling economy, the housing market has maintained its value, and homeowners have navigated this uncertain time well.

October Housing Market Updates for the Greater Bay Area

Median prices for single-family homes had the largest year-over-year gain of 2020 and reached another all-time high.

Year-over-year, median single-family home prices were up 19% in the Greater Bay Area.

In this newsletter, we break down the Bay Area into four regions, as follows:

  • North Bay: includes Marin, Napa, Solano, and Sonoma
  • East Bay: includes Alameda and Contra Costa
  • Silicon Valley: includes San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz
  • San Francisco city/county

Median condo prices were mixed, but mostly showed positive gains. Condos in Napa and Marin experienced large year-over-year gains, while San Mateo had the largest decline (-9%).

Total inventory decreased in August, as the number of homes under contract rose for both single-family homes and condos. Lack of supply compared to demand typically buoys Bay Area prices, and this is still the case for single-family homes, with far fewer homes for sale than this time last year—with the exception of San Francisco, which had a 45% increase in homes for sale.

To understand buyer and seller sentiment in the different Bay regions, we can look at how new listings and homes under contract factor into the total inventory in a given month. Using 2019 as a normal year, relative to 2020, we can see the year-over-year abnormalities and seasonal changes.

During the initial months of the pandemic (March, April, and May), buyers and sellers hesitated to enter the market or withdrew from it entirely. Buyers of both single-family homes and condos mostly stayed out of the market from March through May, causing inventory to build. Buyers came back to the market in June, a month before we started seeing an increase in new listings.

New listings for single-family homes increased in July and August but were met with a dramatic increase in sales, causing a decrease in inventory. The figures below show the specific buyer and seller sentiments over time for each region.

The Days on Market (DOM) trended down as buying activity increased. Single-family homes and condos sold at similar speeds in the same counties. The lower inventory and faster pace of sales caused the Months of Supply Inventory to remain low.

We can look to Months of Supply Inventory (MSI)—the measure of how many months it would take for all current homes for sale on the market to sell at the current rate of sales—as a metric to judge whether the market favors buyers or sellers. The average MSI is three months in California, which indicates a balanced market. An MSI lower than three means that buyers are dominating the market and there are relatively few sellers (a sellers’ market), while a higher MSI means there are more sellers than buyers (a buyers’ market). The MSI for single-family homes is typically below three, and an MSI of 1.9 is low, firmly favoring sellers. The MSI for condos is generally more balanced, around three.

In summary, the single-family home market in particular is heavily undersupplied, a byproduct of the desirability of the Bay Area. Condo supply and demand was mixed across counties, but most saw median price gains. Overall, the housing market has shown its resilience through the pandemic and remains one of the safest asset classes. As we digest seemingly endless stories on negative economic data, we are pleased to report that home ownership has offered a sense of stability. 

Moving forward, we anticipate new condo listings to slow. Home prices will likely remain stable. The fall/winter season tends to see a slowdown in activity, as well, although this year we may see a new trend.

As always, we remain committed to helping our clients achieve their current and future real estate goals. Our team of experienced professionals are happy to discuss the information we have shared in this newsletter. We welcome you to contact us with any questions about the current market or to request an evaluation of your home or condo.


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Maaret

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